Long Wave Theory Blog

There are a lot of shite posts in the blogosphere, and there are some brilliant ones.  This falls into the latter category.  This isn’t just another doomsday treatise on our economic crisis.  No, this is a poignant analysis of why our system must fail.  It weaves a compelling narrative, indicting economics for it’s hand in the mess, the political system of influence peddling, the culture of greed and narcissism, and the ignorance of the true problems we face as a society.  I think this piece is one of the most brilliant arguments I’ve read in a long time.  Unfortunately if you take it to its logical conclusion, we’re fucked.

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Why the Austrian, Keynesian, Marxist, Monetarist, and Neo-Liberal Economists Are All Wrong.

Yves Smith is a joy to read, if only she wrote about subjects that were a little more uplifting.  This is a concise, thoughtful piece and I think, unfortunately, she’s spot on.

naked capitalism: Is This the Start of the Big One?.

Plus ca change, plus ca la meme chose.

China risks trade suicide – Telegraph.

FT.com | Willem Buiters Maverecon | The fiscal black hole in the US .

Eloquently stated .

The General Motors Reorganization and the Federal Government – Richard A. Posner.

In light of this, if every person in a management or director role in this company is not sent away to prison for a long time, this country has fallen farther than I can imagine.  This latest example of wanton disregard for basic decency, integrity, concern for others, and moral responsibility to ensure public safety is appalling.  The level of depraved indifference of this company must not go unpunished.  Anyone associated with the management and oversight of this company should never be allowed to work in a food services business. Frankly they need to go to jail.

FDA: Peanut plant knew product was tainted with salmonella – CNN.com.

The concept of blogging is predicated on short form writing, not long thoughtful expository writing.  I just had that epiphany.

One of the reasons I’ve been dilatory in blogging is that I agonize over what to write, edit, rewrite, and publish.  I just had a personal newsflash that I need to pick a topic–say, the absurd state of healthcare in America–and just write stream-of-consciousness highly analytical treatises in short form (less than 250 words).

Maybe now we’ll get into a rhythm and my blog posts will start to flow.

For six months I have been procrastinating and delaying writing about my thoughts on our current economic trajectory because, I must admit, I have serious trepidation.  During my period of delay we as a nation have been deluged with constant news of the seemingly inexorable downward spiral of our economy.  Just scan the major news sites and you find things like:

 Oil Pushes to New High Above $113; Gas Prices…

 US Foreclosure Filings Jump 57 Percent in March

 Food and Energy Costs Lead Wholesale Prices to…

Median Price of SoCal Homes Plunges 24 Percent

These are just 4 randomly plucked from from the web.

In light of this constant flow of negative press about our economy, I think it’s time to throw my hat in the ring and begin analyzing the analysis of our economic trajectory.  What makes me qualified to do this?  A couple of things.  First, I spent the better part of my college and graduate years studying History; specifically, how economies adapt to changing financial instruments and technological innovations.  I wrote a dissertation on the subject and then I left academia for a job in the private sector as a business historian and consultant.  From there I continued my departure from my academic roots, gave up studying entrepreneurialism and it’s seminal role in the growth of our economy, and struck out on my own as an entrepreneur myself.  And for the last 10 years, that’s what I’ve been.  So, I think I have a unique perspective.  I am a formally trained Historian of the U.S. economy who has spent the last 10 years as a businessman and entrepreneur.  I’ve experienced both failure and success in those endeavors.

As I get more into blogging about our economic trajectory and its attendant news coverage, I think you’ll see a pattern emerge.  Hopefully, people who have more influence than I do will agree with my analysis and recognize that pattern and do something about it.

So where is the U.S. economy heading in the next year? How about the next 4 years? Or decade?  Well, that’s the $15 trillion question.  $15 trillion.  Just about the current level of the  U.S. GNP.  But it’s a hollow number–and not just because of all those zeros.  It’s hollow because we just cannot fathom the scale and scope of the number. While a trillion is mathematically speaking just a million million, our cognitive powers cannot truly grasp what that means–just like we can’t begin to fathom what it will mean for our society as our economic foundations continue to erode over the next decade.

For the past 60 years–since we fought back fascism in World War II–we’ve been at the top of the global economic food chain.  Our ability to marshal our collective national resources and win the fight was brought about by decades of prior (1865-1919) unbridled industrial, social, urban, and financial innovation.  Now, as we close out the first decade of the 21st century, we risk undermining that power and prestige because of patently idiotic political decisions in the last 20 years.

History is rhythmic.  The actions of today have far reaching implications in the future.  By understanding the forces behind decisions in the past my hope is that people who lead the political, financial, social, and economic institutions of this country will open their eyes.

I recently returned from a trip across the pond. A little R&R with friends spent at Oktoberfest and among the Italian & Swiss Alps. I’ve traveled to Europe extensively in the past and always quite enjoy it. On this latest journey I was struck by the stark contrasts between America and Europe. Case in point: I was with a group of about 12 friends in Munich for Oktoberfest. If you don’t know what it is or, more likely you haven’t been, then I suggest you check it out–in person if you have the chance. You’ll be amazed by the sheer scale of this 3 week spectacle.

I’ve been to many large fairs and drunken festivals–Mardi Gras in New Orleans, Fantasy Fest in Key West, Lollapalooza, New Year’s Eve Times Square NYC, and state fairs–but I’ve never seen anything like Oktoberfest. It’s not the size of the event, nor the fact that there are about 500,000 drunks at any given moment coursing through the Theiresenwiesen in the heart of Munchen. No, it’s the fact that admist all the revelry, the Mass of FestWeiss, the Bretzl, and the Wurst, there is a level of decorum and order that transcends the whole event. What am I talking about? Well you put that many testosterone producing, beer drinking males in one place any where in America and things are going to get ugly.

At Oktoberfest there was none of that. Sure you had people passed out or wretching in corners. But there was no fighting. There were no police in overwhelming force. There was a paltry amount of litter. The rest rooms were clean. There were no port-a-potties! Real restrooms. The beer was served in 1 liter glass mugs–GLASS! I tell you. Can you imagine in any large American city the municipal authorities allowing 500,000 drunk people to congregate in the heart of downtown–say the Mall in DC and they could get their beers in real glass mugs? Are you kidding me? The personal injury lawyers would salivate over that prospect. But, alas, it just wouldn’t happen here.

So why is it that the Bavarians can play host to over 3 million drunk people for a 3 week span in late September and early October and not have to call out a battallion of riot police, brigades of mounted police, and hundreds of uniformed patrolmen to ensure things don’t “get out of hand”? I didn’t see more than 5 policemen during my entire 2 day stay at Oktoberfest.

You have to admire a society that can throw a party like Oktoberfest and not tamp down so hard on the fun that you think you’re trapped in some Orwellian nightmare.

We could learn a thing or two from our friends across the pond.